Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

The Effects of Ocean Acidification on Feeding and Contest Behaviour by the Beadlet Anemone <Emphasis Type="Italic">Actinia equina</Emphasis>     

Tess Olivia Bamber  Angus Charles Jackson  Robert Philip Mansfield 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(2):215-224

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing oceanic pH to decline worldwide, a phenomenon termed ocean acidification. Mounting experimental evidence indicates that near-future levels of CO₂ will affect calcareous invertebrates such as corals, molluscs and gastropods, by reducing their scope for calcification. Despite extensive research into ocean acidification in recent years, the effects on non-calcifying anthozoans, such as sea anemones, remain little explored. In Western Europe, intertidal anemones such as Actinia equina are abundant, lower trophic-level organisms that function as important ecosystem engineers. Changes to behaviours of these simple predators could have implications for intertidal assemblages. This investigation identified the effects of reduced seawater pH on feeding and contest behaviour by A. equina. Video footage was recorded for A. equina feeding at current-day seawater (pH 8.1), and the least (pH 7.9) and most (pH 7.6) severe end-of-century predictions. Footage was also taken of contests over ownership of space between anemones exposed to reduced pH and those that were not. No statistically significant differences were identified in feeding duration or various aspects of contest behaviour including initiating, winning, inflating acrorhagi, inflicting acrorhagial peels and contest duration. Multivariate analyses showed no effect of pH on a combination of these variables. This provides contrast with other studies where anemones with symbiotic algae thrive in areas of natural increased acidity. Thus, novel experiments using intraspecific contests and resource-holding potential may prove an effective approach to understand sub-lethal consequences of ocean acidification for A. equina, other sea anemones and more broadly for marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

Binary Star Fractions from the LAMOST DR4     

Zhi-Jia Tian  Xiao-Wei Liu  Hai-Bo Yuan  Bing-Qiu Chen  Mao-Sheng Xiang  Yang Huang  Chun Wang  Hua-Wei Zhang  Jin-Cheng Guo  Juan-Juan Ren  Zhi-Ying Huo  Yong Yang  Meng Zhang  Shao-Lan Bi  Wu-Ming Yang  Kang Liu  Xian-Fei Zhang  Tan-Da Li  Ya-Qian Wu  Jing-Hua Zhang 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(5)

Stellar systems composed of single, double, triple or higher-order systems are rightfully regarded as the fundamental building blocks of the Milky Way. Binary stars play an important role in formation and evolution of the Galaxy. Through comparing the radial velocity variations from multiepoch observations, we analyze the binary fraction of dwarf stars observed with LAMOST. Effects of different model assumptions, such as orbital period distributions on the estimate of binary fractions,are investigated. The results based on log-normal distribution of orbital periods reproduce the previous complete analyses better than the power-law distribution. We find that the binary fraction increases with Teff and decreases with [Fe/H]. We first investigate the relation between α-elements and binary fraction in such a large sample as provided by LAMOST. The old stars with high [α/Fe] dominate with a higher binary fraction than young stars with low [α/Fe]. At the same mass, earlier forming stars possess a higher binary fraction than newly forming ones, which may be related with evolution of the Galaxy.  相似文献   

苏北浅滩沉积物中的大型绿藻微观繁殖体的垂直分布和物种多样性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘峰  刘兴凤  金柘  于仁成  孔凡洲  颜天 《海洋与湖沼》2018,49(5):983-990

本研究通过在2017年秋冬季组织实施的2个绿潮种源调查航次,研究苏北浅滩紫菜养殖区沉积物中的大型绿藻微观繁殖体的垂直分布和物种多样性。对沉积物中的微观繁殖体的定量实验结果表明:表层泥样中绿藻微观繁殖体的丰度最高,随着深度的增加迅速降低。在9月份表层沉积物中丰度为9±2ind./g,而在11月份表层丰度达到98±25ind./g;与9月份相比, 11月份浅滩沉积物中绿藻繁殖体数量呈现出显著升高的趋势。通过对51个绿藻样品的分子鉴定发现:沉积物中存在石莼属(Ulva)、尾孢藻属(Urospora)、盘苔属(Blidingia)等大型绿藻的微观繁殖体;数量占优是石莼属繁殖体,主要包括曲浒苔(Ulva flexuosa)、浒苔(Ulva prolifera)、扁浒苔(Ulva compressa)、缘管浒苔(Ulva linza);其中曲浒苔占据的比例最高,在9和11月份分别达到80.94%和73.33%。在2个调查航次中,都从沉积物中发现了绿潮浒苔的微观繁殖体,这些微观繁殖体是绿潮浒苔在苏北浅滩种源维持的重要方式和关键阶段,也构成了黄海浒苔绿潮连年暴发的"种子库"。  相似文献   

融合实时路况信息的北京市就医可达性分析     

杜清运  谢伟文  邢峰  张剑  冯璐玮  李益言 《地理信息世界》2018,(3):22-27

就医可达性是衡量区域医疗公平性的标准之一,为均衡医疗设施配置提供了理论依据。两步移动搜索法(2SFCA)是一种较为成熟的可达性计算方法,但仍存在研究最小基本单元尺度较大、供需点间时间估算忽略路网的通达性和实时路况等问题。本文利用高德地图获取依据实时路况规划最优驾车路线的时间,通过2SFCA评估北京市1 575个居民点在工作日的5个时段和4种出行时间阈值内到达208所医院的可达性。结果表明:北京市就医可达性空间分布不均衡,随搜索阈值的增大,分布形态由多峰值分布向以西城区和东城区为中心的环状扩散分布转换。时段分异特征显著,各时段可达性为一般及以上居民点比例由高至低依次为夜晚、中午、下午、早高峰、晚高峰。  相似文献   

An interacting new holographic dark energy in the framework of fractal cosmology     

Ehsan Sadri  Martiros Khurshudyan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(11):230

In this paper, we study an interacting holographic dark energy model in the framework of fractal cosmology. The features of fractal cosmology could pass ultraviolet divergencies and also make a better understanding of the universe in different dimensions. We discuss a fractal FRW universe filled with the dark energy and cold dark matter interacting with each other. It is observed that the Hubble parameter embraces the recent observational range while the deceleration parameter demonstrates an accelerating universe and a behavior similar to \(\Lambda \mbox{CDM}\). Plotting the equation of state shows that it lies in phantom region for interaction mode. We use \(\mathit{Om}\)-diagnostic tool and it shows a phantom behavior of dark energy which is a condition of avoiding the formation of black holes. Finally we execute the StateFinder diagnostic pair and all the trajectories for interacting and non-interacting state of the model meet the fixed point \(\Lambda \mbox{CDM}\) at the start of the evolution. A behavior similar to Chaplygin gas also can be observed in statefinder plane. We find that new holographic dark energy model (NHDE) in fractal cosmology expressed the consistent behavior with recent observational data and can be considered as a model to avoid the formation of black holes in comparison with the main model of NHDE in the simple FRW universe. It has also been observed that for the interaction term varying with matter density, the model generates asymptotic de-Sitter solution. However, if the interaction term varies with energy density, then the model shows Big-Rip singularity. Using our modified CAMB code, we observed that the interacting model suppresses the CMB spectrum at low multipoles \(l<50\) and enhances the acoustic peaks. Based on the observational data sets used in this paper and using Metropolis-Hastings method of MCMC numerical calculation, it seems that the best value with \(1\sigma \) and \(2\sigma \) confidence interval are \(\Omega _{m0}=0.278^{+0.008~+0.010} _{-0.007~-0.009}\), \(H_{0}=69.9^{+0.95~+1.57}_{-0.95~-1.57}\), \(r_{c}=0.08^{+0.02~+0.027}_{-0.002~-0.0027}\), \(\beta =0.496^{+0.005~+0.009} _{-0.005~-0.009}\), \(c= 0.691^{+0.024~+0.039}_{-0.025~-0.037}\) and \(b^{2}=0.035\) according to which we find that the proposed model in the presence of interaction is compatible with the recent observational data.  相似文献   

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Pierre Gassendi     

Mikhail Vokhmyanin  Nadezhda Zolotova 《Solar physics》2018,293(11):150

Solar activity behaviour on the eve of the Maunder minimum may provide important information on the period of further suppression of sunspot population. We analyse sunspot positions and areas in the 1630s extracted from rare drawings published by Pierre Gassendi in Opera Omnia. This work was published in two different editions, the first in Lyon and the second almost 70 years later in Florence. The drawings published in Lyon are found to be slightly different from those published in Florence, which produces a discrepancy in the position of spots of a few degrees, while sunspot group areas may differ by a factor of two. We reveal that the orientation of the drawings in the book is not always the same as might be seen in the telescope. We conjecture that the time of Gassendi’s observations covers the beginning of a new Schwabe cycle in the southern hemisphere. The differential rotation rate in the 1630s is also assessed and discussed.  相似文献   

Low resolution spectroscopy of selected Algol systems     

Shanti Priya Devarapalli  Rukmini Jagirdar  M. Parthasarathy  D. K. Sahu  Vijay Mohan  B. C. Bhatt  Vineet S. Thomas 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(4):69

The analysis of spectroscopic data for 30 Algol-type binaries is presented. All these systems are short period Algols having primaries with spectral types B and A. Dominant spectral lines were identified for the spectra collected and their equivalent widths were calculated. All the spectra were examined to understand presence of mass transfer, a disk or circumstellar matter and chromospheric emission. We also present first spectroscopic and period study for few Algols and conclude that high resolution spectra within and outside the primary minimum are needed for better understanding of these Algol type close binaries.  相似文献   

Understanding the Role of Mass-Unloading in a Filament Eruption     

J. M. Jenkins  D. M. Long  L. van Driel-Gesztelyi  J. Carlyle 《Solar physics》2018,293(1):7

We describe a partial filament eruption on 11 December 2011 that demonstrates that the inclusion of mass is an important next step for understanding solar eruptions. Observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft were used to remove line-of-sight projection effects in filament motion and correlate the effect of plasma dynamics with the evolution of the filament height. Flux cancellation and nearby flux emergence are shown to have played a role in increasing the height of the filament prior to eruption. The two viewpoints allow the quantitative estimation of a large mass-unloading, the subsequent radial expansion, and the eruption of the filament to be investigated. A 1.8 to 4.1 lower-limit ratio between gravitational and magnetic-tension forces was found. We therefore conclude that following the loss-of-equilibrium of the flux-rope, the radial expansion of the flux-rope was restrained by the filamentary material until 70% of the mass had evacuated the structure through mass-unloading.  相似文献   

Comparison of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation between the Changbai Mountains of eastern Eurasia and the Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America     

Xiao-yi Guo  Hong-yan Zhang  Ye-qiao Wang  Hong-shi He  Zheng-fang Wu  Ying-hua Jin  Zheng-xiang Zhang  Jian-jun Zhao 《山地科学学报》2018,15(1):1-12

The Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains have similar spatial contexts. The elevation, latitude, and moisture gradients of both mountain ranges offer regional insight for investigating the vegetation dynamics in eastern Eurasia and eastern North America. We determined and compared the spatial patterns and temporal trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation dataset from 1982 to 2013. The spatial pattern of NDVI in the Changbai Mountains exhibited fragmentation, whereas NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains decreased from south to north. The vegetation dynamics in the Changbai Mountains had an insignificant trend at the regional scale, whereas the dynamics in the Appalachian Mountains had a significant increasing trend. NDVI increased in 55% of the area of the Changbai Mountains and in 95% of the area of the Appalachian Mountains. The peak NDVI occurred one month later in the Changbai Mountains than in the Appalachian Mountains. The results revealed a significant increase in NDVI in autumn in both mountain ranges. The climatic trend in the Changbai Mountains included warming and decreased precipitation, and whereas that in the Appalachian Mountains included significant warming and increased precipitation. Positive and negative correlations existed between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, respectively, in both mountain ranges. Particularly, the spring temperature and NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation in both mountain ranges. The results of this study suggest that human actives caused the differences in the spatial patterns of NDVI and that various characteristics of climate change and intensity of human actives dominated the differences in the NDVI trends between the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains. Additionally, the vegetation dynamics of both mountain ranges were not identical to those in previous broader-scale studies.  相似文献